Markets are closely watching the US Dollar (USD) as the Federal Reserve policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, prepare to speak following significant economic data releases. A record bond trade, involving 118,000 futures contracts betting on a 50-basis-point rate cut in November, has further heightened attention on the Fed’s next move. Initial US jobless claims fell to 218,000, indicating a robust labor market, while durable goods orders outperformed expectations, contributing to the mixed market sentiment.

In the US economic data, durable goods orders for August showed no change from July’s surge, but still beat the forecasted decline. GDP growth for Q2 remained stable at 3%, and core PCE held steady at 2.8%. The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index is expected to increase, and a series of Fed speakers will give insights into the economic outlook and monetary policy. Markets will be keen to interpret these speeches, especially in the context of recent developments in bond markets and inflation expectations.

On the technical front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains volatile, with potential for significant movement depending on data and Fed commentary. Key levels to watch include resistance at 103.18 and support near 100.22. With global markets reacting to economic stimulus from China and anticipated Fed decisions, the USD may face further fluctuations. Current projections suggest a 60.5% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting.